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Archive for January 2014

Two Mini Real Estate Investment Expos in Seattle, Wednesday February 5th & Thursday 6th!

By Adiel Gorel

We are excited! ICG Real Estate Investments (International Capital Group) are going up to Seattle to put on a mini-version of our quarterly Real Estate 1-Day Expo that is usually held near SFO in South San Francisco. As most of you know, we have been doing these expos for 20 years and there is always so much information. I personally return home more knowledgeable every time, as everything in real estate and real estate investing changes weekly, if not daily it seems. I am putting information about his event in a blog, as I want to share it with many new people as possible, and I know I will be connecting with many new folks on LinkedIn as well.

I have not spoken in the area for about six years, and it is going to be great to re-connect with so many that I used to connect with on a continual basis. Building relationships is what we are about and the excitement is mounting! It will be like a family reunion. (Hopefully, that is a pleasant thought to most of you!) Based on demand we are looking forward to two evenings, which will allow folks to attend twice or pick a day that works best for their schedule.

These two evenings will not be easily forgotten, and we are available to talk before or after and even during the events, as well as meeting over the phone, well after the event. The Mini Real Estate Expo (s) is a great way to start out the new year with hard-hitting information you can use to be a better investor. This action-packed event will be held from 6-9:30 pm on two nights, Wednesday, February 5th and Thursday, February 6th. This way, busy Seattleites have two options to work the event into their schedule. Many of you requested that I have the event in two different locations for added convenience, so we have provided that. You can also come to both nights if you desire!

Patricia Wangsness and Adiel Gorel will be the expert presenters, and you will hear from expert loan sources and learn from market teams across the country that will be flying in to tell you about the hottest markets and the proven methods to use for success. Here is a taste of what you can expect:

  • How to identify the best markets for investments
  • How to invest when you are “too busy to invest” (step-by-step)
  • Learn how your properties can be rented and managed well from afar
  • Pay for your children’s college education using real estate (or for your own education)
  • Secure a powerful retirement using real estate
  • How to benefit from recession prices in 2014, and where to do it
  • Learn how to acquire loans you did not know you could get
  • How to benefit from special market situations few people know about and how to use it to your advantage
  • There are ways to successfully own multiple properties and manage them–we will show you how

There will be extensive Q & A time. There will also be teams there in person to meet with you one-on-one; they will also be speaking about the hottest markets in the U.S.

This will be one of the premier networking events in 2014 so far!

Date and location of the mini expos:

Click here to register! If you have any questions prior to the event, please call Adiel Gorel at (800) 324-3983 or (415) 927-7504.

Any additional questions about the venues or if you have trouble on the day of the event, please call our public relations pro, Lynette Hoy on her cell (415) 694-3004 or at her office in the Seattle area (206) 455-9366. Lynette will be at both events, so please call her cell phone between 4-9: 30 pm on those nights if you need assistance.

Look forward to seeing you there. I can’t wait!

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5 Things to Watch in Housing in 2014

By Adiel Gorel
In an article in the Wall Street Journal by Nick Timiraos on January 7, 2014 an attempt at predicting various scenarios for housing at large in the U.S. for the year is made. Of course, the 5 points are general. I personally believe (and am actually seeing) that markets that are still reflecting post-recession pricing (like Florida) and where houses can easily be bought under bare construction costs AND the future demographics are promising – should show a far more bullish trend this year versus other markets. Here is what
Mr. Timiraos says:
 
“For housing, it was a tale of two halves in 2013. During the first half, unusually low supplies of homes and low rates spurred bidding wars, pushing prices up sharply. During the second half, the frenzy cooled amid a sudden spike in interest rates. While more markets are now reporting increases in inventory, the number of homes for sale remains quite low.”
 
The bull case for 2014 goes something like this: those low inventories will support rising prices. Below-average levels of household formation, the argument goes, must ultimately pick up, boosting construction. Mortgage rates, while higher, are still historically low. Credit standards will stop getting tighter and might loosen as home prices rise. Finally, mortgage delinquencies are dropping. While some states still have elevated foreclosure inventories, the worst of the distressed-housing problem is in the rear-view mirror.
 
The bear case, meanwhile, says that the recovery is a mirage built on the back of the Federal Reserve’s stimulus that has done little more than inflate asset values, including home prices. Record low-interest rates, the argument goes, unleashed demand from both borrowers and all-cash investors seeking returns on something—anything—with a decent return. These investors built large rental-home companies that remain untested at scale. How can first-time buyers take the baton from investors at a time when prices are up almost 20% in two years and when interest rates are rising? 
 
Other problems loom: Mortgage rates could jump, choking off housing demand and curbing new construction that remains mired at 50-year lows. Investors could unload their homes if the rental-home thing doesn’t pan out. And don’t look for much help from mortgage lenders that face a cocktail of new regulations, which could keep credit standards stiff.

 

So which view will carry the year? Here are five wild cards to watch this year:
 
(WSJ: 7 Jan 2014 By Nick Timiraos)
1.  WILL INVENTORY RISE?

Prices have risen largely because of shortages of homes for sale. While there is growing evidence that inventories hit bottom last year and that some markets are moving back in favor of buyers, the number of homes for sale remains relatively tight still. Foreclosure-related listings have plunged, and traditional buyers haven’t flocked to list homes—at least not yet. New construction, meanwhile, won’t be back to normal historical levels for years. The consensus view is that price growth continues at a somewhat slower pace, but that consensus view could be wrong—for the third year in a row—if there aren’t more homes for sale.

 
A graph showing fewer homes on the market have resulted in higher prices for housing
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

2.  WHERE IS THE HOME-CONSTRUCTION RECOVERY?
While home prices have recovered strongly, new construction activity hasn’t. Part of this may have to do with the fact that home prices are still too low to justify construction, particularly given land, labor, and materials costs. For smaller builders, credit may also be harder to come by. Some economists say new-home demand could remain muted because many move-up buyers don’t have enough equity to “trade up” to that new home. Key issues to watch here: What happens to household formation, and do builders begin to throttle back price gains in favor of selling more homes in 2014?

 
A graph showing New-Home Building Slowly Returning
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 



3.  WHAT HAPPENS TO MORTGAGE CREDIT?
Lenders could begin to ease certain “overlays”—or additional credit and documentation checks—that have been imposed over the past few years. Mortgage insurance companies are getting more comfortable insuring loans with down payments of just 5%. So don’t be surprised if, at the margins, it gets a little easier to get a mortgage—especially if you have lots of money in the bank.

Even if it gets easier to get a loan—by no means a given—borrowing costs and fees could rise. Banks also face new mortgage regulations that could keep most of them cautious. Borrowers with more volatile or harder-to-document incomes, including the self-employed or those who make a lot of money on commissions, bonuses, or tips, could continue to face tough sledding.

A red for sale sign in front of a house
Bloomberg News

4. WHAT WILL INVESTORS DO WITH THEIR HOMES?
A handful of institutional investors have purchased tens of thousands of homes that are being rented out. These homes tend to be concentrated in a few of the regions that have been hardest-hit by foreclosures over the past five years. Investor purchases played key roles in stabilizing prices, especially because investors were wolfing up homes at a time when supplies were already dwindling. A key question now is what happens after the initial rush to invest subsides. More lenders and investors are extending debt financing to some of these property owners, which should help boost returns. Can owners perfect the expense management associated with maintaining and leasing tens of thousands of individual homes?
Can owners perfect the expense management associated with maintaining and leasing tens of thousands of individual homes?

5.  WHEN DOES HOUSING HIT A TIPPING POINT ON AFFORDABILITY?
Rising home prices are a double-edged sword, especially in pricier coastal markets such as San Francisco and Los Angeles. On the one hand, rising prices are giving many homeowners equity in their homes again—an extremely positive development to the extent it means these borrowers are less at risk of foreclosure.

But price inflation is making housing less affordable. This will be a bigger problem if cash buyers retreat from the market in 2014 and/or if interest rates rise in a meaningful way. Consider: In Los Angeles, prices have jumped by nearly 30% in the past two years, to a median of $448,900 in the third quarter. Assuming a 20% down payment, the monthly payment of principal and interest on the median-priced home has jumped from $1,255 in the third quarter of 2011 to $1,823 in 2013—a 45% increase.

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