As we read, daily, about the spread of the Coronavirus (now also called Covid-19, but I will use Corona throughout), we are all concerned about the spread, mortality rates, means to protect ourselves and so on.
The stock market has taken a massive plunge over the past few days, on Coronavirus fears and how they may affect the economy.
Certain industries are already affected, the Olympics may be cancelled, and vacation spots are suffering due to flight and vacation cancellations.
As the stock market goes down, people who own stock feel less wealthy. However, it is reported in many sources that heavy stock concentrations in one’s portfolio occur in the upper quarter of income in the US.
Due to the virus fears, people become less mobile, fly less and stay put more.
The lure of the safety of one’s home gets more into focus.
In the affordable markets in which we invest, the type of homes we buy as investments are the type of homes purchased by homeowners who are squarely in the middle of the pack in terms of income, and even below. It is quite possible that a good segment of this population may not feel less wealthy. Their desire for a home will likely not diminish, and that means the demand for the type of homes we invest in is likely to stay strong.
The Fed is Already hinting that they are considering lowering interest rates to help the economy in the aftermath of the Coronavirus economic effects. That is at a time when interest rates are already some of the lowest in history. If rates go further down, the homes will become yet more affordable, with a potential for even greater demand, and even price appreciation. It is also possible that demand may be increased as some people move out of stocks and seek an alternative investment.
The organic need for families to have a place to live is not likely to diminish in the face of the Coronavirus. If people buy these affordable homes, especially with lowered rates, it bodes well for us investors. If people rent them, it also bodes well for us, as our vacancy rates go down.
There may well be adverse effects such as a dearth of workers due to tighter border controls and less travel, a dearth of building materials which usually arrive freely from all over, including the far east, and other shortages. Ironically, even these adverse effects are likely to increase prices, as supply may struggle to keep up with the usual demand.
This is a good lesson for us about the risk of investing in “vacation rentals”. Many younger investors may not be aware, or have forgotten, the devastating effect of the last recession on vacation rentals. I constantly talk to investor wondering why they shouldn’t buy vacation rentals. Just as in a recession, vacations are a luxury, and this luxury is one of the first to get dropped when circumstances are difficult. Even Airbnb’s may experience pain during a recession, as well as, possibly, in the face of the virus scare.
Investing in single family homes in good areas in large metropolitan areas in the Sun Belt states for affordable prices, looks even more solid in the face of difficult circumstances, relative to vacation rentals. That is one of the reasons this is what we focus on.
One of the reasons I have been so steadfast about investing in single family homes is their vast future benefits, in addition to their great relative safety.
Morgan Stanley just released, on February 28th, a 3-scenario report as to how the virus spread may affect the economy. Currently they are estimating what they call “Scenario 2”, in which the recovery we now experience is stunted in a relatively minor way before means are attained to stop the spread of the virus, as the most likely senario. The 3rd and worse scenario may lead to a recession (albeit after all the checks and balances congress installed after the major 2008 recession, I believe a future recession to be quite a bit milder than the last one, especially since one of the reasons for the severity of the 2008 recession was the massive amount of sub-prime loans, a phenomenon that has been greatly reduced by congress since, and is not nearly as prominent currently.
We have seen prices of homes in many markets drop sharply during the recession, but we also know that simply holding on to the homes, while the 30-year fixed rate loan continues to be eroded by inflation, gets us out of that cycle and into the correction. I myself have already experienced it several times in my investing career.
An extreme amount of student loan debt is currently burdening the majority of college attendees within the United States. We’re talking about an average of 1.4 trillion dollars. Even more unsettling, this statistic doesn’t include the debt accumulated by Parent Plus Loans. Though these loans are deemed the parent’s responsibility, it is oftentimes agreed upon by the student to pay it back. This amount is estimated to be an extra $89 Billion.
Whether you are a student or parent worried about the burdens of educational finances, ICG is here to educate you on the valuable potential of a real estate investment.
Paying Back Student Debt?
Consider the possibilities of a positive investment. Though it might be intimidating to accumulate more debt, it could be life-changing to educate yourself on pertinent information that, if begun early enough, could initially obviate the need for student loans. ICG will guide you through the steps to build equity, pay for your kids’ or grandkids’ college, and also plan for a powerful retirement. Stay updated with recorded events and watch Adiel Gorel explain the importance of single-family home rental investments.
Want to Secure Your Child’s Future?
College may seem way down the line for your child, but it arrives sooner than expected, causing you to panic about the financials. ICG will provide you with the tools to solve this worrisome predicament. Investing in a single-family home may not seem in the cards right now, but it is an excellent way to provide funding for your child’s education. Working with real estate investments for over 30 years through historic recessions worldwide, Adiel Gorel presents easy-to-follow investment plans that go beyond securing future financial stability, by focusing on your wellbeing as a foundation for future success.
Investing in you or your child’s education should be of top priority. Join our worldwide sessions when you become a member, and gain deeper access to a variety of educational resources that simplify all your investment questions with doable answers. For a more in-depth look, attend ICG Real Estate 1-day Expo on September 7th, 2019 near the San Francisco Airport. Contact us for details and for complimentary tickets at email@example.com.
On September 29th, 2008, the United States witnessed a financial disaster that would eventually overtake the globe. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 777.68 points after Congress refused the bank bailout bill. Seemingly overnight, the nation’s sense of security was swept off its feet. By 2009, 861,664 families lost their homes and foreclosing rates increased by 225% in two years. Ten years later, the effects have slowly dwindled away, but the fear persists as noted by the 23% of young prospective homeowners who see homeownership as a “bigger financial risk”, despite the market’s correction.
Eliminating real-estate investment fears, president of the International Capital Group, Adiel Gorel shares the minimum-risk/maximum-return solution: Remote Control Retirement Riches, the investment strategy designed for even the most inexperienced investor. As millions of Americans turn away from retirement plans and Social Security, find a simple solution in our upcoming broadcast discussing Single-Family Rental Homes.
Make an Investment with Confidence – not Fear
Owning multiple homes post-2008 may seem counterintuitive to financial stability. However, for the past 30 years, Gorel has developed and shared the Single-Family Rental Homes investment plan, assisting busy and inexperienced families to plan for their future without compromising the present. Explore a wealth-building strategy that has previously led to:
- Paid-Off College Tuitions
- Paid-Off Mortgages
- Paid-Off Home Renovations
- Healthcare Emergency Funds
- Investor’s Tax Benefits
Join Adiel Gorel in our upcoming broadcast, July 25 at 1:00 pm PST on KQED, to discover how to create multimillion-dollar rental single-family home portfolios using real-estate markets throughout the U.S. Learn about helpful loans and investment tips that support retirement riches regardless an investor’s age. Also, since real-estate investments involve several markets nationwide, you can implement methods at your own pace, maximizing your control over your investments while reaping benefits with minimal time constraints.
Erase your own investments fears and start planning the future with confidence. Follow us on KQED on the dates listed below to learn more at our interactive seminar. Visit our Membership Area for more detailed information and insights into becoming a home investor without becoming a full-time real estate mogul or hired landlord.
- KQED Plus: Sat, Jul 13, 2019 — 3:00pm
- KQED 9: Thu, Jul 25, 2019 — 1:00pm
- KQED Plus: Thu, Jul 25, 2019 — 10:30pm
- KQED Plus: Fri, Jul 26, 2019 — 4:30am
- KQED Plus: Sat, Aug 10, 2019 — 10:30am
A few times a week I talk to investors planning on putting a large down payment on the purchase of a single-family rental home. The goal is to have a better “cash flow”. It may sound logical – the greater the down payment, the smaller the loan, and hence the monthly payments. However, the foundational piece of buying rental homes in the United States is the “gift” called “the 30-year fixed rate loan”. This loan sounds like a miracle to most foreigners, since neither the monthly payment nor the mortgage balance EVER keeps up with the cost of living around the world, while everything else does.
The magical 30-year fixed rate loan
The 30-year fixed-rate loan is at the heart of life transformation for investors when the homes are held for 10 years or more (preferably over 15). The loan keeps getting eroded by inflation (or CPI– the cost of living), while the home, rent, and everything else keeps requiring more dollars to buy (hence in dollars, their value goes up – even without intrinsic appreciation). The 30-year fixed rate loan starts looking quite puny after 12, 14, 16 years. It may be years before it is paid off, but since it never keeps up with the cost of living, inflation hammers the real value of the loan.
These loans are a great financial gift, with future-changing potential. Why, then, would you want to make the gift smaller? Especially at today’s low rates? The answer is, you don’t. A larger down payment will mean the magical loan will be smaller.
May be wise not to exceed 20% down payment
This is not fully utilizing the power of the fixed-rate loan, and it means the borrower has expended more of their scarcest resource: cash! Even very wealthy people, who can afford to put down a large down payment or buy for cash, choose to put down less money. They do this to leverage their cash with the 30-year fixed-rate loan.
I think that in normal cases, a 20% down payment should not be exceeded. The small additional cash flow due to having a smaller loan is insignificant at the present time. Right now, your main “cash flow” should come from your own earnings (salary). It is later in life during retirement that the rental homes can replace your income.
In cases of big 1031 exchanges, with not enough properties to identify, or in cases of not being able to get the FNMA loan anymore, then larger down payments are merited and that is a different blog post. I still think the down payments should be less, rather than more, in any circumstance. Currently, in our Membership area on our website, we have podcasts and a webinar that discuss loans and cash flow in depth. You can learn more about it at icgre.com/members
At the end of March 2019, it became known that the White House is pressuring the Fed to lower its benchmark federal-funds rate by half a percentage point, according to an article in the Wall Street Journal by Nick Timiraos and Kate Davidson. There has been no movement yet.
We now see homeowner rates for mortgages at the 4.1% range; some of the lowest in history. If the White House succeeds, the benchmark federal-funds will not translate to lower mortgage rates right away, but mortgage rates will inevitably drop. Possibly even lower than at any time during the past decade. It is a waiting game and time will tell over the coming months.
This would likely create more buyers, push prices higher in most markets, and create an upward push in strong economy cities (and even not-so-strong).
The magical 30-year fixed rate loan
Since we are aware of the uniquely special anomaly called the 30-year fixed rate loan, (we are the only country that has this type of loan) where neither the monthly PI (principal and interest) payment (not the loan balance) keep up with inflation and the super low rate will be locked for 30 years, we are fully protected.
If you qualify for the best loan, under the FNMA (Fannie Mae, officially the Federal National Mortgage Association, or FNMA is a government-sponsored enterprise (GSE)—that is, a publicly-traded company which operates under Congressional charter—that serves to stimulate homeownership and expand the liquidity of mortgage money by creating a secondary market.) guidelines this is a great time to buy where the numbers make sense. Taking action is important.
Many are not aware that they can purchase up to 10 homes with this type of loan. Married couples (if they qualify separately) can purchase 20. This is already a great time to lock these rates in with the magical 30-year fixed rate loan. If the White House succeeds in lowering rates, the terms will become more attractive.
In my experience, I have seen people look back and lament over not making use of these great circumstances to build a solid portfolio for their future. I hope you are not one of them.
This summer in our Membership area we will have a couple of podcasts where I will talk about this solo and in interviews with experts. I will also be talking about the 30-year fixed rate loan in detail in my show produced for public television called “Remote Control Retirement Riches with Adiel Gorel” that will be airing over the next several days across the country. Take a look at our website here for details and to check for showtimes in your area.
Here is a recent video on the show currently posted on my YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/8eiUYcsOPiQ
In a podcast I recorded recently, I gave my take on the question I get asked almost daily: “Before I start buying investment homes, should I create an LLC?” I begin by stating that this is a legal question and should be posed to a lawyer.
The 30-Year Fixed Rate Loan
As a non-lawyer, I point out some issues: We talk about the benefits of getting the fixed-rate 30-year loans. These loans are referred to as “FNMA loans” ( since they follow the FNMA – Federal National Mortgage Association guidelines). The FNMA loans will not be given to a new LLC. They will be given to an individual with income, a credit score, etc. Thus if you create a new LLC and buy the property in the name of the LLC, you will likely be giving up on one of the most powerful pillars of single-family rental investments: the 30-year fixed-rate loan.
Also, again, speaking as a non-lawyer (always fact check with a lawyer), an LLC has protective qualities only if it adheres to being a completely separate entity from you. It needs its own bank account, checks, (checkbook) books (bookkeeping or software like Quickbooks), etc. If there is a shortage in the LLC, you cannot just transfer money to it. That would be commingling funds and may destroy any protective qualities the LLC might have had.
In addition, lawyers have been telling me that court cases indicate more and more that for meaningful protection, you need to have a multi-member LLC and not just a single member one.
A single-member LLC is liked because it is a “pass-through” entity. That means the financials of the LLC flow through to the owner’s taxes and no separate tax return is needed for the LLC. However, a multi-member LLC needs its own separate tax return, K-1’s issued to the various members (and who is that other member, by the way?). That means more costly accounting fees and time spent.
In addition, some states require (besides a tax return), a yearly fee. California, for example, charges $800 per year per LLC.
I also mention that when you buy a home for $180,000 and put 20% down, you have a loan of $144,000. If a lawyer considered suing you and looked at this home, it would be unattractive – since the lawyer may not be a real estate professional, and he or she would assume that selling a $180,000 that has a $144,000 loan on it, will yield virtually no money after commissions, expenses, and perhaps selling quickly (it is not always an ideal time to sell). Thus the very existence of the mortgage is already a good protective measure.
Knowledgeable lawyers I know recommend using insurance as the first line of defense. Get good liability insurance on the home, and get umbrella insurance to cover up to your entire net worth.
Recently, I interviewed one of the best lawyers I have met on this subject, Brett Lytle, partner at McDowall Cotter out of the San Francisco Bay Area. Brett is also one of our expert guest speakers at our quarterly Expo once or twice a year. The podcast interview can be found in the Member’s area on our website: www.icgre.com/members
In a Fortune Magazine article by Chris Morris, published in February, it is reported that in January 2019, there was more inventory available and houses sat on the market about a week longer than in January 2018.
As of January, there was an available inventory of 1.59 million homes overall, versus 1.53 million in December 2018. Of course, the article is lacking by treating the entire country as one monolithic real estate market. Needless to say, there are hundreds of markets, and they don’t always perform in lockstep.
Nevertheless, there is a subtle shift, even in mentality, that is more favorable to buyers as opposed to sellers, who until recently reigned supreme. Since we are primarily buyers (and then we hold for the long term), a buyer’s market is a positive for us.
It is interesting to note, and one of the reasons I am posting this blog based on an article several weeks old is that while in January 2019 sales were flat, in February 2019 sales surged up, but then dropped only slightly. This is likely to continue to lower rates and sellers having to adjust expectations. Overall, we can see that while there is a shift towards buyers in many markets, the market is still hovering near a relatively stable point. With the low-interest rates and more friendly sellers, this becomes a positive for the investor.
We like to buy brand-new homes. Clearly, the sellers for us are builders. Some builders don’t want to sell to investors. Our market teams successfully convince the builders that it pays to work with our investors, as they get good volume from us. As the mood changes, these very builders may become more receptive to working with buyers, and perhaps even offer more incentives.
In a recent article on CNBC by Diane Olick, it is reported that weekly mortgage applications have risen by 5.3%. It is quite likely driven by the low rates, which may now last longer than previously expected. In general, purchase demand is weakening in the more expensive markets due to affordability issues.
Homeowners’ interest rates on mortgages are now about 4.65%. Investors always have higher rates, but can still get rates in the relatively low 5’s, which historically (for investors) is one of the lowest rates in the past few decades (only higher than the mid 4’s from about a year and a half ago, but much lower than most historical rates over the past few decades).
For us, as investors in new single-family rental homes in the Sun Belt states, demand for mortgages is up, and so is the demand for housing. Yet price increases over the past year have not been sharp. This makes some large metro areas in the Sun Belt affordable and sensible to the investor.
I have said countless time how special it is to get a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage which never keeps up with the cost of living (neither the PI monthly payment nor the remaining mortgage balance). Thus, inflation constantly erodes the real value of our loan, while the tenant’s rent is paying it off. To be able to get such 30-year fixed-rate loans at today’s rate is an extra special gift (for reference, when I started buying homes in the 1980’s, rates on investor mortgages were about 14%).
Investors should buy in the Sun Belt
Investors will be well served to buy new, good homes in good metro areas in the Sun Belt, getting a 30-year fixed-rate loan if they can (FNMA only allows 10 per person or 20 for a couple where both spouses can independently qualify). Many of our investors have exceeded that threshold. However, those of you that still can get these great loans, would be wise to use them.
Reach out to our office to schedule a time with me if you would like to discuss this further at (415) 927-7504 or email firstname.lastname@example.org.