At the end of March 2019, it became known that the White House is pressuring the Fed to lower its benchmark federal-funds rate by half a percentage point, according to an article in the Wall Street Journal by Nick Timiraos and Kate Davidson. There has been no movement yet.
We now see homeowner rates for mortgages at the 4.1% range; some of the lowest in history. If the White House succeeds, the benchmark federal-funds will not translate to lower mortgage rates right away, but mortgage rates will inevitably drop. Possibly even lower than at any time during the past decade. It is a waiting game and time will tell over the coming months.
This would likely create more buyers, push prices higher in most markets, and create an upward push in strong economy cities (and even not-so-strong).
The magical 30-year fixed rate loan
Since we are aware of the uniquely special anomaly called the 30-year fixed rate loan, (we are the only country that has this type of loan) where neither the monthly PI (principal and interest) payment (not the loan balance) keep up with inflation and the super low rate will be locked for 30 years, we are fully protected.
If you qualify for the best loan, under the FNMA (Fannie Mae, officially the Federal National Mortgage Association, or FNMA is a government-sponsored enterprise (GSE)—that is, a publicly-traded company which operates under Congressional charter—that serves to stimulate homeownership and expand the liquidity of mortgage money by creating a secondary market.) guidelines this is a great time to buy where the numbers make sense. Taking action is important.
Many are not aware that they can purchase up to 10 homes with this type of loan. Married couples (if they qualify separately) can purchase 20. This is already a great time to lock these rates in with the magical 30-year fixed rate loan. If the White House succeeds in lowering rates, the terms will become more attractive.
In my experience, I have seen people look back and lament over not making use of these great circumstances to build a solid portfolio for their future. I hope you are not one of them.
This summer in our Membership area we will have a couple of podcasts where I will talk about this solo and in interviews with experts. I will also be talking about the 30-year fixed rate loan in detail in my show produced for public television called “Remote Control Retirement Riches with Adiel Gorel” that will be airing over the next several days across the country. Take a look at our website here for details and to check for showtimes in your area.
Here is a recent video on the show currently posted on my YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/8eiUYcsOPiQ
Interest rates are rising. In the past year mortgage rates went up by over 0.5%. Homeowner mortgage rates are now about 4.4%; investor rates are always higher, and are currently at about 5.25%. Historically, these are still very low rates. Even in the past 20 years, which saw some of the lowest interest rates in nearly a century, the average rate is about 6%; based on the past 7% and even 7.5% are considered low.
In the 1980’s there were periods where interest rates were over 14%. For many years, rates were in the “double digits.” There was a lot of joy when rates finally got down to a “single digit.” I recall everyone running to refinance to get the amazing new rate of 9.95%!
The single-family home investor
For the single-family home investor, given their ability to get a 30-year fixed rate loan, which miraculously never keeps up with inflation, these recent changes in interest rates should mean very little. I have seen thousands of people’s lives change dramatically over the years buying good solid single- family home rentals. The trick is to hold them for a long time (leaving it be–no refinancing for debt consolidation) and let inflation erode the fixed loan to the point of ridiculousness, while natural average price appreciation happens steadily (that includes booms and busts – on average single-family home prices have appreciated at least 1.5 times the rate of inflation historically).
So why do I talk about interest rate rises potentially ruining your future?
That has to do with human behavior. I have seen many cases recently, of investors who understood the powerful future benefit of buying single-family rentals, and as it happens, were looking during the period when rates were super low (investor rates were 4.7%). A few months later, when investor rates are now 5.3%, I have been hearing investors saying “Well, I don’t want to invest anymore, since rates went up from 4.7% to 5.3%”.
THIS is how you can ruin your financial future. Over the years, I have seen it time and time again – investors not taking action, not cementing their future by actually investing in a single-family home rental. Rather, they would find a reason not to do it – “interest rates are too high now”, “I read the economy will tank”, “it’s too late”, “I am too old” etc.
Using a minute change in interest rates as an excuse not to move forward, especially at a time when rates, even for investors, are supremely low – like today, is simply not going to let the powerful effect of rental homes change your future for the better.
Take action now to change your financial future
I have seen many such cases in the past, for example: two friends were considering investing in houses, one thought “the interest rates were too high” and didn’t do anything. The other went ahead and invested. Once he saw it was easy and profitable, he invested again, and again. Today, the financial difference between the two friends is staggering. The one who owns the rental homes, bought over 15 years ago, is retired with great ease, has sent his kids to great colleges, and is wealthy. His friend – not so much. It’s almost heartbreaking.
Don’t let these minor perturbations in interest rates ruin YOUR financial future.
We will discuss this and a lot more at our ICG Quarterly 1-Day Expo on Saturday 5/19/2018 near the San Francisco Airport. I will be teaching and holding extensive Q & A sessions. We will have expert speakers on Asset Protection, 1031 Exchanges, Financial Planning overall, as well as lenders, 5-star networking, and market teams from the most relevant markets in the U.S. You can attend free (or with a guest), by emailing us at firstname.lastname@example.org, and mentioning this blog. Be sure to give us your name and the name of your guest. Looking forward to seeing you.
In the period between 2006 and 2008, a large number of interest-only loans were taken. These loans are not really interest-only for all eternity. These are typically loans that were interest-only for 10 years, and then were due to become fully amortized until the end of the loan period. One detail that many borrowers may have missed, is that if the total loan period is 30 years (the most common), and the loan is interest-only for 10 years, then the amortization that follows the 10 interest-only years will be amortization OVER 20 YEARS!
Surging Home Prices Are a Double-Edged Sword
Affordability Troubles Grow, Especially for First-Time Buyers
Some of the markets that had gone down significantly have registered great price improvements, especially between Q1 2012 to Q3 2013. Phoenix led the pack followed closely by Las Vegas and many California cities. Florida has provided steady appreciation but did not go crazy (most likely due to the slow judicial foreclosure process which modulates home supply into the market and helps avoid spikes).