Understandably, in Florida, there is likely to be more price appreciation, as the state as a whole reflects the recession effect due to the ultra-slow judicial foreclosure periods. All in all, however, it’s definitely time to look to the stable markets with great economies and low unemployment. It is time for the classic long term hold of houses, where the tenant pays off the (very low) fixed-rate mortgage while inflation keeps eroding it.
SLOWING PRICE GAINS SUGGEST STABLER MARKET
By Kathleen Madigan (WSJ)
Updated Dec. 31, 2014 12:41 a.m. ET
Yearly growth in home prices across the U.S. continued to moderate early in the fourth quarter, suggesting the housing market may be settling into a more sustainable recovery.
Prices nationwide increased 4.6% in the year ended in October, according to the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home-price report released Tuesday. That was down from 4.8% in September and a far cry from the 10%-plus gains in the first quarter. A 20-city measure more closely followed by economists increased 4.5% over the year in October, also down sharply from double-digit gains earlier in the year.
Demand for housing has slowed significantly in recent months despite stronger job growth, a rebound in consumer confidence and falling gasoline prices, which puts more money into consumers’ pockets. Sales of both new and existing homes fell in November. Yet the slowing trend is a positive for the 2015 housing outlook, say economists who follow the industry.
Price appreciation of about 5% is close to a sweet spot where more buyers are able to purchase a home and current owners accumulate housing wealth, but the market avoids a price bubble that could trigger a financial crisis, as happened in 2007.
“It’s a healthier market because first-time buyers feel more comfortable about coming in,” said Bill Banfield, vice president of capital markets at mortgage lender Quicken Loans, adding that the industry needs more first-time buyers to buy smaller homes that allow existing owners to move up into new construction or to an existing house that better suits their needs.
For 2014, however, first-time buyers accounted for only 29% of existing-home sales, according to data from the National Association of Realtors, much less than the historical norm of 40% for sales of primary residences.
Economists at IHS Global Insight agree slower price appreciation is positive for the housing outlook. “Home appreciation at a reasonable pace makes homeownership an attainable dream,” said Stephanie Karol, a U.S. economist at IHS Global. A repeat of the double-digit growth seen in early 2014 “would risk producing a bubble,” she said.
But just as each real-estate market is local, she pointed out the Case-Shiller price index of 20 cities masks the individual pricing experience going on across the country.
“Prices are rising fastest in cities such as San Francisco where geographic or legal constraints limit new construction,” Ms. Karol said. Cities with fewer zoning laws and more space—such as Charlotte, N.C., and Phoenix—are seeing smaller price gains.
Still, the average home-price gain of about 5% is good, she said, and IHS Global is upbeat about home demand and prices in 2015. The forecasting firm projects home prices, as measured by an index compiled by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, will increase 5% over the course of next year and sales of new and existing homes will average 5.92 million, up from 2014’s current pace of about 5.3 million.
Here is a link to the Wall Street Journal U.S. Housing Market Tracker:
The WSJ reports (in an article on Saturday 10/18 by Joe Light), that Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and mortgage lenders are in discussions to ease lending standards; including loans with 3% down to homeowners and allowing people with weak credit access to home loans.
Surging Home Prices Are a Double-Edged Sword
Affordability Troubles Grow, Especially for First-Time Buyers
Up until the beginning of 2012 there were some states that lead the way as far as investor interest: California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida. That interest on the part of investors was justified, as these four states were the most clearly noticeable examples of recession housing prices. These four states were the “poster children” for extreme housing price collapse.
During 2012 and 2013 all four states exhibited strong housing price appreciation. Phoenix led everyone with a 70% jump. Las Vegas wasn’t far behind and California process improved rapidly. Florida prices went up but the uptick was tempered by far slower judicial foreclosure processes in Florida, as opposed to the quick and efficient trustee sale in the other three states.
Now, in the middle of 2014, Florida prices have improved quite a bit and yet, due to the slow foreclosure process, which creates a steady trickle of supply into the marketplace, Florida is still a place where investors look to buy. However buying in Arizona, Nevada and California has slowed significantly for now.Other states, which have not experienced such extreme price swings, are now becoming attractive investor destinations.
A prime example is Oklahoma City, with low unemployment and the benefit of the oil & gas industries. Rents are high and property taxes are low. Similarly, other “middle of the country” markets in states like Kansas and Missouri are starting to attract more buyers, as is the state of Texas (with a strong economy, high rents, but also very high property taxes and insurance rates) and states like Ohio.Overall it is possible that soon the effects of the recession will no longer be dominant and marketplace demand by investor will revert to parameters before 2008.