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Posts Tagged ‘home loans’

White House Pushes Fed to Cut Interest Rates

At the end of March 2019, it became known that the White House is pressuring the Fed to lower its benchmark federal-funds rate by half a percentage point, according to an article in the Wall Street Journal by Nick Timiraos and Kate Davidson. There has been no movement yet.

We now see homeowner rates for mortgages at the 4.1% range; some of the lowest in history. If the White House succeeds, the benchmark federal-funds will not translate to lower mortgage rates right away, but mortgage rates will inevitably drop. Possibly even lower than at any time during the past decade. It is a waiting game and time will tell over the coming months.

This would likely create more buyers, push prices higher in most markets, and create an upwards push in strong economy cities (and even not-so-strong).

The magical 30-year fixed rate loan 

Since we are aware of the uniquely special anomaly called the 30-year fixed rate loan, (we are the only country that has this type of loan) where neither the monthly PI (principal and interest) payment (not the loan balance) keep up with inflation and the super low rate will be locked for 30 years, we are fully protected.

If you qualify for the best loan, under the FNMA (Fannie Mae, officially the Federal National Mortgage Association, or FNMA is a government-sponsored enterprise (GSE)—that is, a publicly traded company which operates under Congressional charter—that serves to stimulate homeownership and expand the liquidity of mortgage money by creating a secondary market.) guidelines this is a great time to buy where the numbers make sense. Taking action is important.

Many are not aware that they can purchase up to 10 homes with this type of loan. Married couples (if they qualify separately) can purchase 20. This is already a great time to lock these rates in with the magical 30-year fixed rate loan. If the White House succeeds in lowering rates, the terms will become more attractive.

In my experience, I have seen people look back and lament over not making use of these great circumstances to build a solid portfolio for their future. I hope you are not one of them.

This summer in our Membership area we will have a couple of podcasts where I will talk about this solo and in interviews with experts. I will also be talking about the 30-year fixed rate loan in detail in my show produced for public television called “Remote Control Retirement Riches with Adiel Gorel” that will be airing over the next several days across the country. Take a look at our website here for details and to check for showtimes in your area.

Here is a recent video on the show currently posted on my YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/8eiUYcsOPiQ

 

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A Real Life Real Estate Investor Story

As you know we always preach the gospel of buying single family homes, renting them, financing them with 30-year fixed-rate loans and then just holding them long term. We have discussed the benefits of having a 30-year loan which never keeps up with the cost of living (while everything else does!) Thus your loan gets constantly eroded by inflation (and don’t let anyone tell you the United States will have no or negative inflation in the face of the massive fixed debt it is on the hook for), while the tenant makes the payments for you (of course the RENT does change with inflation which makes it all the sweeter).

In the past month I got a call from a financial planner handling the affairs of one of my investors. He had purchased nine single family homes in Phoenix in the mid 90’s. It turns out the he did not even live in the United States anymore, hence the financial planner handling his affairs in the U.S. They decided it was time to sell the homes in light of the 2012-2015 run-up in values that Phoenix has experienced in the aftermath of the recession.

Needless to say his mortgages, while still not completely paid off (they are 30-year loans after all), are essentially as good as paid off after over 20 years. They never kept up with the cost of living and the principal payments whittled them down pretty low – very funny numbers considering the 20+ year inflation which the loan never kept up with.

A few quick CMAs (Comparative Market Analysis) by one of our Phoenix brokers revealed that after selling the nine homes, the investor would NET (after sales expenses and closing), about $1.7M. Considering he bought the homes for an average of $80K each and using 10% down payments (those were the financing terms back in the mid 90’s), his overall return on investment is not only staggering, but the $1.7M is a real, tangible, powerful enhancement for the rest of his life (he is now in his mid 60’s).

As much as this is a satisfying long term result, I know the investor could have easily bought way more than nine homes. Loans were plentiful back then (no up-to-10 limits) and he had the capacity to easily buy three times as many homes. Nevertheless, even with this investment, he has created a powerful effect on his financial future. Alternatively he could have just kept the homes and have the net rent from all nine homes contribute to his retirement income.

During our next 1-Day Expo (tomorrow near SFO – see www.icgre.com for details and if you mention this blog entry, you are invited at no cost – just email us at info@icgre.com with the attendees’ names), we will discuss new loans available to investors who own over 10 homes as well. Loans are now also available to foreigners again, and of course, if you own less than 10 homes there are conventional investor loans available to you from most banks.
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Can We See Real Estate Trends by Media Headlines?

Media headlines have been a pretty good gauge on the overall mood and trends in the real estate industry.  During the big boom of 2005 and 2006, the headlines were screaming, “When is the bubble going to burst?” (A sage point to ponder as it turned out.) During the dark ages of 2008 – 2010, the media headlines took pains to emphasize just how much prices were down in so many markets – a good tip for the savvy buyer.

What does it look like these days?

Within the past couple of months here are a few headlines: October 20th in the Wall Street Journal, the headline to an article by Jeffrey Sparshott says, “Builder Optimism Hits 10-Year High.” I believe you can guess what the article is about. In any case due to the blessed internet – you can just look it up. Another headline, again from the Wall Street Journal, by Anna Louise Sussman and Laura Kusisto says, “Home Sales Head for Best Year Since 2007.” Again pretty self-explanatory.

The above two articles convey good optimism and strong home sales. For real estate investors this may not always be the best news, as naturally they hunt for bargains. Nevertheless having a strong real estate market in many cities lends itself to strong occupancy, builder (built) homes (always an attractive investor buy due to builder incentives, and new homes bode well for a long hold with minimal potential repairs, and usually the best financing). Having solid real estate markets is a strong backdrop for our tried-and-true-buy-and-hold-with-a-30-year-fixed-mortgage strategy. Add this to low rates still existing today and you have some very good opportunities to expand your portfolio, lock in super low rates forever and change your financial future.

And about those rates – isn’t the Fed just about to raise rates? Let’s look at this headline from the November 24, 2015, San Francisco Chronicle article by Kathleen Pender, “Rate Hike Won’t Hit Too Hard – At First.” I concur—rate hikes will most likely begin by ¼ of a point for short term debt. In addition this anticipation may already be baked in the current mortgage rates. It will most likely be a while before the needle moves on mortgage rates in a significant manner.

With that being said the Fed’s intention highlight yet again that we operate within a “golden window” of super low mortgage rates. For new investors this seems like the norm. For veteran investors, we recognize these rates as the lowest in decades. If anyone has the ability to fix these rates forever in a loan that never keeps up with inflation – now may be the time.

During our quarterly 1-Day Expo THIS SATURDAY – December 5, 2015, we will have a sophisticated asset protection attorney—back by popular demand—Brett Lytle, who will speak on asset protection. Brett always has the most cutting-edge information on protecting our assets and the pros and cons of the type of entities we form.  Ron Stempek, MS-Tax, CPA, will speak on optimizing your taxes for reporting 2015—important must-know information for optimizing tax dollars, and actions to take going into the new year. Christopher Orr, Director of Institutional Products at PENSCO will be speaking on retirement savings goals by using self-directed IRAs, buying properties from a self-directed IRA, and using this vehicle to further your wealth.  As always, we have cutting edge markets teams, lenders, networking and lots of Q&A time. 

Anyone contacting us and mentioning this blog can attend free (email to info@icgre.com or call us at 415-927-7504). If you email us, put in the subject “I read your blog on Blogger” and give us your name and phone number so we can confirm with you.

Looking forward to seeing you, and Happy Holidays!

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2016 and the Real Estate Investor

The year is off to a decent start–the fears many investors had that mortgage rates will go up very quickly due to the Fed’s raising the short-term rates recently have not only not materialized, but actually mortgage rates have gone down twice. I will address it in a separate blog entry but as you can see there is no immediate correlation. Needless to say mortgage interest rates WILL go up at some point which in part serves to frame the most important aspect of 2016.
During 2016 mortgage interest rates are likely to remain quite low for the entire (or most of the ) year. As single family homes investors, those of you with decent credit and not a huge portfolio can still qualify and get these coveted 30-year fixed rate loans that you can only get on Single Family Homes (technically 1-4 residential units).

This is the year to focus and be effective in buying solid homes financed by these 30-year fixed rate loans at these incredible interest rates and lock them forever. You will feel like a genius later on after rates have climbed and here you are with an under-5% loan fixed forever, and never changing with the cost of inflation. In a continuous manner, inflation erodes your fixed loan, and the tenant is paying it off one little month at a time.

Do this in 2016. Do this several times. You will be setting up your financial future.

As far as markets, there may not be large appreciation swings in most markets during 2016. In a funny way the ever-solid Texas is appreciating decently now, but people have some questions about its overall economy.

Oklahoma City with brand-new homes (under 50% of the property tax bite of Texas; it is poised to provide better cash flow on similar rents and home prices – which it has) is a very serious candidate for solid investments.

Jacksonville, Florida is the market least appreciated in the state so far and carries the best appreciation potential. Also in 2016 the Panama Canal project is slated to be finished, potentially generating major large-ship traffic into the Jacksonville port. Will they finish this gargantuan project on time? Will it drift over to 2017? Regardless, it is a dominant event.

Get those good single family homes and finance them with low 30-year fixed rate loans. Rinse and repeat. You will very likely be quite happy in the future when you look back at what you have done. We will be discussing this in detail, along with market teams and incredible experts, during our next quarterly 1-Day Expo near SFO on Saturday March 5th. Everyone citing this blog can attend for free with guests. Just email us at info@icgre.com or call us at 415-927-7504.

Happy New Year!:

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Do You Think You Can Never get College Aid For Your Kids Due to Your High Income?

Many of you may automatically assume that you will get no college aid when your kids arrive at that age, due to your income, which you assume is too high (especially if you are in Silicon Valley) and crosses all the threshold.

Surprisingly, it is not a matter of just how high your raw income is. It is a much more complex matter of how your overall financing looks, is arranged, even optimized.
For this important knowledge, we have invited Gary Sipos, MBA, AIF, to educate us (no pun intended) on the subject. Gary has helped numerous families get into college in ways that were much more beneficial and frugal than they had imagined.

I always talk about real estate investments, the way we do it at ICG, as a means for a stable financial future with two main items: retirements and your kids’ college. I like to explain how Single Family Home investments done with a long horizon can assist both these goal in a very powerful way.

It is only natural that if we can optimize one of our biggest potential expenses, we would like to know about it.

Gary will be speaking THIS SATURDAY, March 5th, at our ICG 1-Day Expo near SFO. There will also be experts on financial planning, special lenders and loan programs, and market teams from choice U.S. markets for us to meet, learn from, and be exposed to some great properties.

Anyone mentioning this blog can attend for free (with guests who can come for free as well). Just email us at info@icgre.comto register. See you this Saturday.
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Home Prices Pass Peak, Go Down In Most Expensive Markets

Since 2012 there has been significant home price appreciation in many U.S. metropolitan areas. Some markets reached levels of unaffordability and continued on a tear until recently. Markets such as San Francisco, New York City and parts of Miami have reached unprecedented highs, accompanied with worries about social clustering, lack of affordability, and the need for long commutes for “regular” (most) people.
In the markets we are interested in and are investing in, there are more diverse scenarios. In the Phoenix and Las Vegas metropolitan areas, prices have indeed gone up quite a bit since 2012 (Phoenix over 100% and Las Vegas almost 100%).  In these two metropolitan areas, affordability is still not an issue. Prices started going up from an exaggerated low point that was the knee-jerk reaction to the Big Crash. Even at today’s prices in Phoenix and Las Vegas, affordability is still not an issue. Most buyers are homeowners and they can use the amazing FHA loan with 3.5% down payment and the lowest possible interest rate, which makes them less price sensitive.
For investors, Phoenix and Las Vegas are less interesting to buy in at this time, as rents have not moved up very much while prices essentially doubled since 2012. Cash flows are nowhere to be found (and investors can’t use the special FHA loan).
The Texas markets have started their ascent around 2013. In the major metro areas in Texas prices went up significantly (around 40% in many cases). This is not as extreme as in Phoenix but enough to make investing in the major TX markets less attractive, especially with the high property tax in the state of Texas.
Florida is a bit of a mixed bag. Expensive properties in Miami Beach are through the roof. Parts of Orlando are up about 50%. However areas in the larger metro area may still be appealing for investment, such as Winter Haven and perhaps Deltona. Tampa is up about 40% but further areas like Zephyrhills are only starting to roar.
In Jacksonville there have been some price appreciation but in the areas we primarily look at, prices are still attractive. Partly this is due to foreclosed homes still hitting the market in an AS-IS condition, pulling comparable sales down. The foreclosed properties showing up in the market is an all-Florida phenomenon, as Florida is a judicial foreclosure state and well-defended foreclosures can last many years.
Oklahoma City has been relatively stable with so-far modest price appreciation. It is close to Dallas and the prices are much more affordable, rents are similar, and property taxes are 40% as much! It is a market that is appropriate for investing in at this time. The large oil reserves in the South Central Oklahoma Oil Province (SCOOP) area, which is not far from Oklahoma City, may bode well for future economic upturn (despite the city already being a strong economic market).
While the most expensive metro area prices are beginning to sag somewhat, investors interested in the range $100K-$200K can still find appropriate places to buy. Couple that with the still super low interest rates (get 30-year fixed rate loans – inflation starts eroding them from day 1 so the latter years are almost meaningless in terms of the real buying power of the dollar), and you get an excellent combination for the savvy long term real estate investor in the right markets.
Feel free to contact us to discuss. I delight in talking about these subjects. info@icgre.com
We will discuss in further detail, including having market teams talk about these and other issues, as well as expert speakers on important investment subjects, during our ICG 1-Day Expo on Saturday December 3rd. Everyone mentioning this blog can attend for free (email us at info@icgre.com). These events have been very useful to the attendees, and I learn a lot every time as well. The event is near the San Francisco Airport and starts at 10:00AM so people can fly in from Los Angeles, San Diego, Seattle, and Portland and so on.
Looking forward to seeing you!

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Loan Resets to Start Kicking in – Will Your Payment Jump Up? What Should You Do?

In the period between 2006 and 2008, a large number of interest-only loans were taken.

These loans are not really interest-only for all eternity. These are typically loans that were interest-only for 10 years, and then were due to become fully amortized until the end of the loan period. One detail that many borrowers may have missed, is that if the total loan period is 30 years (the most common), and the loan is interest-only for 10 years, then the amortization that follows the 10 interest-only years will be amortization OVER 20 YEARS!

Thus when the loan resets to being fully amortized after the first 10 years, the borrower will experience the high payment jump of going from interest-only to going to a 20-year full amortization. For a lot of borrowers, this will be a shock! Of course the “silver lining” is that principal is being paid under the new fully amortized schedule, so the loan balance gets lower every month. However even when the loan was interest-only, inflation was constantly eroding it anyway.
What is the borrower to do?
If the borrower can afford the increased payment with no problem, there is not much that needs to be done. Let the loan be paid off and just continue as before. If the payment load is too heavy, and the owner’s credit and income are good (especially if the owner has under 10 properties with loans on them), a refinance would a be a logical step – good credit can get 30-years fixed rate loans at a bit over 4% – fixed for 30 years. The payments will be higher than the interest-only payments from before, but the low interest rate and the 30-year amortization (as opposed to 20 years), will likely make the payment far lower than the alternative. Another benefit – the old loan is likely NOT a true fixed-rate loan so as interest rates climb in the future (if they do), the already-high payment is only going to get higher still. With a 30-year fixed-rate loan, such a thing cannot happen.
If a refinance is not possible, the next thing to look into is the possibility of selling the house. In some markets, over the past few years, much equity was built as home prices appreciated significantly. A sale will pay off the unpleasant loan, and most likely will generate a profit (perhaps a handsome profit at that).
One thing to do if a sale is not possible, if the house is underwater (can still be the case in some markets), or if the equity is thin so the sales expenses will create a net shortage, is to consider selling to an investor for essentially no-money-down on a contract-for-deed in states that allow it. That investor may be attracted to the no-down (or low down) purchase and may have the resources to pay the 20-year amortization loan while increasing his/her equity via doing so.
Of course, an option of last resort is to simply walk away. There are lots of investors whose credit is still damaged from the aftermath of the recession, so the credit hit is not devastating to an already-low credit score. Nevertheless, such an act will increase the time it will take for the investor’s credit to bounce back and start the count from zero again. This is not a recommended action to take.

Most important is to be aware of the upcoming reset, and prepare before it hits.
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The Incredible Power of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Loan

The 30-year fixed rate loan does not usually get its due as an amazing financial tool that should be utilized by any savvy investor who can get it. For many foreigners, it’s incomprehensible that in the U.S. we can get a loan that will never keep up with the cost of living for 30 years. During that period, essentially everything else DOES keep up with the cost of living, including rents. Only the mortgage payment and balance (which also gets chipped down by amortization) do not keep up with inflation. 

You can talk to many borrowers who have taken 30-year fixed rate loans and after, say, 16 years, realized that although there are 14 years remaining to pay off the loan, the loan balance AND the payment seem very low relative to marketplace rents and prices. The remaining 14 years is almost meaningless, since in many cases (statistically and historically) the loan balance will be a small fraction of the home price and not very “meaningfu.” Just to get some perspective, most other countries on earth have loans that constantly adjust based on inflation. Both the payment and the balance track inflation all the time, usually with no yearly and lifetime caps as adjustable loans have in the U.S.

The power and positive effect on one’s financial future get magnified when you consider that in 2016 we are still in a period in which interest rates are very low.  While investors cannot get the same favorable loans as homeowners, it is nevertheless quite common nowadays to see investors getting a rate of between 4.25% and 4.75% on Single Family Homes (SFHs) investment properties. 

From a historical perspective, these are extremely low rates. Most experts think that in the future, mortgage rates will rise; from a historical perspective even 7% is considered a low rate. Thus, these days, you can “turbo boost” the great power of the never-changing-30-year fixed rate loan by also locking in these amazing rates which will never change. If in the following years interest rates indeed go up, you will feel quite good about having locked under-5% rates forever.

Once you secure your  fixed rate loans, two inexorable forces start operating incessantly: inflation erodes your loan (both the payment and the remaining balance), and the tenant occupying your SFH pays rent which goes in part towards paying down the loan principal every month. These two forces create a powerful financial future for you.

Many investors think that if a 30-year fixed rate loan is good, then a 15-year loan must be better. I actually beg to differ. You can always pay a 30-year loan in 15 years (or 14 or 20 or 10 or 8) if you wish – just add some extra to the principal payment. However you cannot pay a 15-year loan off in 30-years. Thus the 15-year loan FORCES you to make the higher payment while the 30-year loan gives you the important flexibility of keeping your payments low OR making them high based on your financial situation and other considerations. 

Some would say that the 15-year loan is also better since it has a better rate. True, the 15-year rate may be 0.25% or even 0.5% better than the 30-year rate. However, in my opinion this is not enough to justify the enormous loss in flexibility. In addition, having the loan for a longer time allows inflation to “erode” the loan even further. This last consideration greatly minimizes the argument some investors make that “…with a 30-year loan I pay hundreds of thousands of dollars more over the life of the loan.” 

One factor missing here is that they neglect the TIME VALUE OF MONEY! These extra dollars paid in year 20, 22, 28 etc., are in fact extremely “cheap” dollars in the sense that their buying power is greatly lowered over time. If the value of these future dollars were to be calculated based on the PRESENT buying power of the dollar, some of the later payments may be worth mere pennies on the dollar. 

In summary I recommend getting a 30-year loan and then choose how long to take to pay it (anywhere between zero and thirty years – you choose!).

While interest rates are low, it would behoove the smart investor to buy SFHs and get 30-year fixed rate loans on them while this “window” is open. Investors can finance up to 10 residential properties using conventional 30-year fixed rate loans (if their credit permits).  With some maneuvering, married couples may be able to stretch it to 20. If you are under that 10  (or 20, as the case may be) property barrier, it would be quite a smart move to buy SFHs and utilize the incredible loans you can get. You may wish to pay the loan off in 16 years to pay for your kid’s college education (SFHs are effective at this – especially if they don’t go through a crazy 10-year cycle as we had from 2004-2014). You could aim for the properties to be paid off at your retirement date (or the savvier move is just realizing how low they have become and let inflation keep eroding them as equity grows into your retirement years, providing financial growth well into the future in the face of ever-increasing lifespans, and the need for our finances to keep up with our life expectancy).

Thirty-year fixed rate loans are available on 1-4 residential units, which mostly means Single Family Homes – the ideal investment for most individual real estate investors, as we have covered in a previous blog.

We will discuss this topic, as well as many other crucial topics for investors, at our Quarterly 1-Day Expo on Saturday May 21st near SFO. We will have market teams present, including a new exciting market… We have also invited top notch experts to lecture. We will have experts on Property Management, 1031 Exchanges and Proper Insurance – the first and most important barrier in protecting your assets, including nationwide umbrellas. 

Everyone mentioning this blog is invited to attend for free, with associates. Just email us at info@icgre.com to register, and in the subject line write, ‘Read your blog!’ Then give us your contact information. We will respond with a confirmation for your free entry. AND that is all. We hate spam as much as you do. See you there.
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Mortgage Rules Set to Ease

An article in the Wall Street Journal dated May 14, 2014 – right on the front page, is an article by Nick Timiraos and Deborah Solomon. The article is about how, after a few years of tight mortgage lending, the U.S. government is set to ease the criteria to get home loans. Needless to say this is music to our ears.As more buyers can enter the marketplace, demand is likely to increase and so are prices.

The housing sector will get a much-needed shot in the arm and for investors, there will be many more potential buyers upon liquidation. Will easing bring us closer to another mortgage meltdown? Possibly, but I think lessons have been learned during the recession which will prevent a wholesale catastrophe as we have seen before.My opinion is that for us as real estate investors this is an excellent bit of news. And remember – get your own 30-year fixed rate mortgage as soon as you can at these rates, which likely will increase in coming years. We will discuss this and much more at our quarterly 1-Day Real Estate Expo Saturday June 14th near SFO. Please see more details and to register, click here.Looking forward to seeing you!

U.S. Backs Off Tight Mortgage Rules

In Reversal, Administration and Fannie, Freddie Regulator Push to Make More Credit Available to Boost Housing Recovery

By Nick Timiraos and Deborah Solomon

The Obama administration and federal regulators are reversing course on some of the biggest post-crisis efforts to tighten mortgage-lending standards amid concern they could snuff out the fledgling housing rebound and dent the economic recovery. Nick Timiraos reports.

WASHINGTON—The Obama administration and federal regulators are reversing course on some of the biggest post crisis efforts to tighten mortgage-lending standards amid concern they could snuff out the fledgling housing rebound and dent the economic recovery.

Click here for the rest of the article.

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New Markets Join the Fray as Pricing Changes

Up until the beginning of 2012 there were some states that lead the way as far as investor interest: California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida. That interest on the part of investors was justified, as these four states were the most clearly noticeable examples of recession housing prices. These four states were the “poster children” for extreme housing price collapse.

During 2012 and 2013 all four states exhibited strong housing price appreciation. Phoenix led everyone with a 70% jump. Las Vegas wasn’t far behind and California process improved rapidly. Florida prices went up but the uptick was tempered by far slower judicial foreclosure processes in Florida, as opposed to the quick and efficient trustee sale in the other three states.

Now, in the middle of 2014, Florida prices have improved quite a bit and yet, due to the slow foreclosure process, which creates a steady trickle of supply into the marketplace, Florida is still a place where investors look to buy. However buying in Arizona, Nevada and California has slowed significantly for now.Other states, which have not experienced such extreme price swings, are now becoming attractive investor destinations.

A prime example is Oklahoma City, with low unemployment and the benefit of the oil & gas industries. Rents are high and property taxes are low. Similarly, other “middle of the country” markets in states like Kansas and Missouri are starting to attract more buyers, as is the state of Texas (with a strong economy, high rents, but also very high property taxes and insurance rates) and states like Ohio.Overall it is possible that soon the effects of the recession will no longer be dominant and marketplace demand by investor will revert to parameters before 2008.

Some of these new markets will be present at our Real Estate 1-Day Expo this Saturday near the San Francisco Airport (see details at www.icgre.com). Call us (415-927-7504) or email us (info@icgre.com) and mention this blog entry and receive my book, for free, with registration at www.icgre.com.

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